By Latest News
All you need to know before the Indian stock market opens for trade on Monday July 01, 2024: Mixed trade in global peers, coupled with subdued cues from GIFT Nifty hints towards a quiet start to the trading action on the NSE Nifty 50 index today.
At 07:00 AM, GIFT Nifty futures quoted around 24,133 levels, indicating a likely flat start.
Today marks the beginning of the trading action for the second-half of calendar year 2024. In F1-CY2024, the benchmark indices – the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 rallied around 10 per cent each. In fact, the Nifty has gained 6.5 per cent in the last four weeks.
“For the week ahead, focus will be on the release of US & Indian manufacturing PMI data and the Fed chair’s speech. The undercurrent is positive, with no major risk visible for the domestic market in the short term. All eyes will be on the Union Budget proposals which will dictate the market in the medium term.”, said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services in a note.
Global mood
Markets, in the Asia-Pacific region, displayed a mixed trend this morning. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.5 per cent. The Australian equity benchmarks – the S&P ASX 200 and All Ordinaries slipped 0.5 per cent each, while Kospi was down 0.3 per cent.
Elsewhere, investors will be closely tracking developments in the France election, as early polls suggesting a likely change in government.
On Friday, the US market ended with losses – the Dow Jones slipped 0.1 per cent. The S&P 500 dropped 0.4 per cent, and NASDAQ shed 0.7 per cent.
The US 10-year bond yield rose to 4.4 per cent. Among commodities, Gold futures steadied around $2,335 per ounce, while Brent Crude Oil was seen hovering around the $85 per barrel mark.
FII, DII flows
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net stock stocks worth Rs 23 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net bought shares to the tune of Rs 6,658 crore.
In the derivatives segment, FIIs index long-short ratio stood at near about 5:1, meaning nearly 5 long bets for every single short position in the index futures. The FIIs net index longs rose to 82.50 per cent, while shorts fell to 17.50 per cent.
FIIs net bought index futures for the 15th straight day on Friday. FIIs added 27,776 net longs in index futures at an investment of Rs 1,711.34 crore. FIIs mostly bought into Nifty futures – a total of 25,281 contracts on June 30.
On the other hand, DIIs and retail investors index long-short ratio stood near 0.5; meaning nearly 2 short positions for every index long.
Trading strategy for Monday, July 01 – Should you be a buyer or seller in the Nifty, Bank Nifty today? Here’s what experts recommend:
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates
Technically, the Nifty has found resistance near the 24,200 levels, and failed to close above the trend line resistance. If the index sustains above 24,200 levels, then the rally could extend towards 24,500-24,600 levels in the short term.
Similarly, the Bank Nifty has formed a bearish candle near trend line resistance. Thus, for the short term, 53,200 will act as a hurdle for Bank Nifty. If the index sustains above the 53,200 levels, then the rally could extend towards 54,000.
Ashwin Ramani, Derivatives & Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities
The Nifty 24,000 Strike saw call writers (Bears) exiting and put writing while the 24,100 & 24,200 saw significant call writing, which kept the Index range-bound for major part on Friday.
The Nifty has formed a shooting star like candle on the daily chart hinting towards mild weakness. The put writers, the Bulls, (2.25 lakh contracts) lead the call writers, the Bears, (1.68 lakh contracts) marginally at the 24,000 strike and the option activity at this strike will provide cues about Nifty’s future direction.
The Bank Nifty has formed an evening star pattern on the daily chart, which is considered to be a bearish reversal signal. Strong call writing along with put writers exiting was observed at strikes from 52,600 until 53,100 in Bank Nifty. The option activity at 52,000 Strike will provide cues about Bank Nifty’s upcoming direction.
Om Mehra, Technical Analyst, SAMCO Securities
The Nifty marked a new high of 24,174 but settled at 24,011, sliding by 0.14 per cent. The index reversed from the 2.618 per cent Fibonacci retracement, which is near the 24,180 level.
On the daily time frame, Nifty has formed a bearish inverted hammer. In the hourly chart, the 23.6 per cent Fibonacci retracement level remains at 24,000. If this level is violated, it may extend to 23,850.
The Bank Nifty daily chart displays an evening star (bearish pattern) with the daily RSI standing at 65 and shifting down towards its average line. The resistance remains near the 52,900-53,950 range while the support is at the 51,700 level. A “sell on rise” strategy is advisable for the next session unless the 53,000 level is crossed.
Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst at LKP Securities
The Bank Nifty index experienced its first meaningful correction on Friday after a non-stop rally in the past week. For the selling pressure to continue, there needs to be follow-up selling; otherwise, the index may get stuck in a consolidation range. The immediate support is at 52,000, where the highest open interest is built up on the put side, while the immediate resistance lies in the 52,700-53,000 zone.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities
The Nifty formed a small-bodied red candle, breaking a four-day winning streak. The sentiment continues to remain strong as the index closed significantly above the critical moving average. However, after a continuous rally, the Nifty looks a bit heavy and might attract profit booking if it sustains below 24,000. On the lower end, the index might fall towards 23,850/23,700 in the short term upon a decisive fall below 24,000. On the higher end, resistance is visible at 24,200.
Primary Market Update
The NSE SME-based Nephro Care India IPO to remain open for subscription for the second day. The issued has received good response, and was subscribed 15.32 times on Day 1 of the offer period.